Tony’s Take | ASU | UGA Achilles Heel | CFB + NFL Picks

ASU. The BLUE GOLD Super Bowl is back. The 34th Annual Fountain City Classic matches Albany State University versus Ft. Valley State University in Columbus on November 9, 2024 at 2:00 p.m. at historic A.J. McClung Memorial Stadium.

McClung Memorial Stadium was home to the UGA ~ Auburn games from 1916 to 1958. Having attended the Classic twice, the stadium is a nostalgic venue that takes older fans back in time. This was a time before texting, social media, and selfies.

The short drive to Columbus is worth the gameday experience. There will be approximately 40,000 within the vicinity of the stadium. Tailgating, blue and gold as far as the eye can see, cheerleaders, stellar marching bands, and an NCAA Division II HBCU rivalry game like no other in the nation.

The passion of the Golden Rams and Wildcats fan bases is as real as the Iron Bowl. I recall a conversation with an ASU alumnus who stated she was in tears bemoaning what appeared to be a loss when the Golden Rams miraculously won in the final seconds. Those tears quickly became tears of joy. The fan bases of both universities would sacrifice an SIAC championship, or trip to the NCAA playoffs for bragging rights.

GAME NOTES.

Record

FVSU 6 – 3 | 6 – 1

ASU 5 – 4 | 5 – 2

Since 2000

ASU 18 wins (2023 ASU 13 | FVSU 7)

FVSU 5 wins (2022 FVSU 31 | ASU 21)

Points Per Game

FVSU 36.6

ASU 36.1

Points Allowed

FVSU 21.6

ASU 25.6

3rd Down Conversions

FVSU_Offense_44.3%_Defense_27.9%

ASU_Offense_46.5%_Defense_41.3%

Red Zone Efficiency

FVSU_Off_94.7%_Def_87.1%

ASU_Off_77.8%_Def_71.4%

SIAC CHAMPIONSHIP. Miles College secured a spot in the championship game last weekend. Despite the Bears 7 wins, they are currently on the outside looking in for a NCAA playoff birth. Winning their final game, and the SIAC championship, does not guarantee a birth in the playoffs but it is their only chance. Meanwhile, FVSU controls its destiny and will advance to play Miles College with a win over ASU.

ASU, Clark Atlanta, and Tuskegee University are 5 – 2. A loss by FVSU will bring tie-breakers into play if either/both Clark or Tuskegee win as they would join ASU at 6 – 2 in conference play. A potential 4-way tie could have Commissioner Holloman burning the midnight oil.

UGA ACHILLES HEEL. The Dawgs Lamborghini driving and NFL (projected) draft pick QB Carson Beck has thrown six interceptions in the past two games. Beck’s eleven interceptions through eight games (7 – 1 | 5 – 1) is much higher than the six picks in fourteen games last season.

Beck has thrown three interceptions in each contest against Alabama, Texas, and Florida. There is no argument that Bama and TX have elite defensive units, but that is too many picks.

Rising Gators QB star DJ Lagway exited the game in the 2nd quarter after a 43-yard TD pass following a Beck interception. Expecting the Gators to upset UGA with a QB who began the season as third string was too much to ask, and the Dawgs won 34 – 20.

BECK’s efficiency last season has disappeared, and UGA will not be able to overcome his turnovers once they enter the CFP. The CFP games will have more pressure than the regular season as turnovers become more magnified, and the margins for error are reduced when playing the elite programs.

DEFENSE. As an armchair QB, here is my opinion on what needs to change. Given UGA has an elite defense, it is time to modify the offensive approach. Until required, reduce Beck’s attempts by committing to running the ball. Narrow his vision on pass plays to minimize the “ghosts”, and offer more layups to increase his confidence. Layups include passes to backs in space, taking advantage of TE matchups, and conceding third and long deep in UGA territory by handing it off to live for the next series. This approach may not help Beck’s draft status, but it will reduce mistakes and increase his confidence while playing to UGA’s strength.

UGA will make a mistake if they plan to play a shootout with Ole Miss in Oxford. The Rebels just dropped 63 on Arkansas. UGA’s offense is presently incapable of scoring at that rate. Mississippi QB Jaxon Dart’s line against the Razorbacks was 25 – 31 for 515 yards with 6 TD’s and 0 interceptions. Dart’s passer rating was an insane 284. By comparison, Beck’s line was 25 – 40 for 309 yards with 2 TD’s and 3 interceptions. His passer rating was 129.

A deeper dive into the interception numbers is telling. Beck throws an interception every 26 passes, while Dart tosses a pick every 92 passes. Yes, you read that correctly.

UGA’s Kirby is a big game coach, and I’m certain he will have OC Bobo dumb things down for Beck to secure a big road win.

SUPER 6 + 1. | #2 UGA @ #19 Ole Miss | #4 MIAMI @ GA Tech | #11 Bama @ #14 LSU | #18 ARMY @ N Texas | FALCONS @ Saints | VIKINGS @ Jaguars | Dolphins @ RAMS | BOLD = Winner | RECORD 40 – 16

Tony Duckworth is a native of Macon and currently resides in Albany. Tony worked in intercollegiate athletics for thirty-one years. Between 2007 – 2023 he was an NCAA Division II Director of Athletics at three different universities, including Albany State, following ten years as a head men’s basketball coach at two colleges. Follow Tony on the X platform at @tonyduckworthsr.